An exit poll released immediately after voting concluded in Wednesday’s general election in the Netherlands indicates the results are currently too close to call. The centre-left party D66 appears to hold a narrow lead over the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), led by anti-Islam lawmaker Geert Wilders. This situation suggests that challenging coalition negotiations are likely to ensue.
According to a poll published by national broadcaster NOS, D66 is projected to secure 27 seats, up from 9 in the 2023 election. In contrast, Wilders’ PVV is estimated to lose 12 seats, leaving it with 25 seats.
If these projections are confirmed, it would represent a significant victory for D66. It could signal a return to a centrist government in the Netherlands, following the tenure of a far-right administration led by Wilders’ party after the previous election.
Given the Dutch system of proportional representation, a single party is unlikely to achieve a majority. Therefore, discussions regarding the formation of the next governing coalition will commence on Thursday.
“D66 has been in existence for 59 years, and if the exit poll is right, this would be the biggest victory in the history of D66,” lawmaker Jan Paternotte told national broadcaster NOS.
If the win is confirmed, D66 will lead negotiations to form a new coalition, with Rob Jetten potentially becoming the Netherlands’ first openly gay prime minister. The exit poll, conducted by IPSOS at 65 polling stations with around 80,000 voters, has provided reliable estimates in past elections.
Wilders’ Party for Freedom won the 2023 election, securing 37 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives. However, support has declined after a turbulent four-party coalition that struggled to agree on migration policies. In a tweet, Wilders remarked, “We had hoped for a different result.” However, PVV remains a strong force as the second-largest party. Notably, he did not host an election night event.
The People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) placed third in the exit poll with 23 seats, while the Green Left and Labour Party coalition lost five seats to finish with 20. The Christian Democrats (CDA) gained 14 seats, bringing their total to 19.
The campaign centred on managing migration and affordable housing shortages. Yet, it is unclear if parties will collaborate with Wilders again, as mainstream parties have deemed him an untrustworthy partner after he dissolved the previous coalition over migration disagreements.
The vote reflected deep polarisation in the country, compounded by violence at anti-immigration rallies and protests against new asylum-seeker centres.
Recent internal disputes among coalition parties have led to concerns that the Netherlands, traditionally a significant voice within the European Union, may not be fully engaging with continental matters as it did under its former leader, Mark Rutte, who now serves as NATO’s secretary-general.
Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform think tank, remarked that “Europe cannot afford another Dutch government that drifts and is absent in the European debate,” as reported by The Associated Press. Tordoir underscored that the Netherlands is among the largest and best-performing economies in the eurozone. If it remains unengaged, Europe’s single market, defence efforts, and economic security are likely to be adversely affected.
Voting occurred at a diverse range of venues, including city halls, schools, historic windmills, churches, a zoo, a former prison in Arnhem, and the iconic Anne Frank House museum in Amsterdam, as reported by The Associated Press. Among those who arrived early at the ornate former City Hall in the central city of Delft was a group of university students who, dressed in bathrobes and carrying mugs of coffee, resided together in a communal living arrangement. Additionally, the Red Light Jazz Radio Station in Amsterdam welcomed voters, providing a space for community engagement. This station is known for its music and news programming, situated in the renowned Red Light District.
