In the South Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan are moving forward. During his recent visit to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan has lifted all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia. The lifting of the embargo will be implemented immediately, with a shipment of Kazakh grain set to arrive in Armenia soon. Since 2003, Armenia has mostly relied on Russian grain delivered via Georgia.
The Armenian government welcomed Aliyev’s statement, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the country will allow truck transit between Turkey and Azerbaijan through the existing road network. This move fits into a broader context of diplomatic progress between the two countries. It comes after the signing last August of a U.S.-brokered peace agreement that included the establishment of a transit route called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), linking Azerbaijan proper to its enclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenia.
Despite these encouraging developments, not everyone in Armenia views the rapprochement positively. Some express concerns that Azerbaijan might control the flow of goods to Armenia. Others oppose normalisation efforts with Azerbaijan due to the latter’s actions, including the captivity of Armenian prisoners in Baku, the erasure of Armenian heritage in Nagorno Karabakh, and Azerbaijan’s continued promotion of revisionist concepts such as the so-called “Zangezur corridor” and “Western Azerbaijan,” which refer to the territory of the Republic of Armenia.
Nevertheless, diplomatic engagement between Baku and Yerevan has continued. Azerbaijan has recently de-escalated tensions, and the two leaders have met on several occasions over the past six months. Yet, the Armenian government remains concerned about Baku’s insistence on the “Zangezur corridor,” which implies extraterritorial access through Armenia and thus challenges its sovereignty.
A day before Aliyev’s announcement, representatives of Azerbaijani civil society travelled to Yerevan on a direct flight from Baku to meet with members of Armenian civil society. Some sources claimed that an Azerbaijani government aircraft also landed in Yerevan. These exchanges have coincided with progress on another front — Armenia’s normalisation with Turkey. Positive developments in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations have had an impact on the Turkish–Armenian normalisation process. Notably, Armenia’s Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure announced plans to restore the Gyumri–Kars railway line to reestablish a connection between Armenia and Turkey.
Beyond its western border, Yerevan is also looking to integrate into wider regional transport networks. In particular, Armenia is seeking to play a role in the so-called Middle Corridor, which currently passes through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. In addition, Yerevan has recently applied to join the Iraq Development Road, a strategic connectivity project led by Turkey. Armenia is eager to participate in regional connectivity projects and to improve relations with its neighbours at both the bilateral and multilateral levels. This foreign policy priority is part of Yerevan’s broader Crossroads of Peace strategy, which aims to end Armenia’s regional isolation and promote its participation in transregional trade.
It is the first time that Armenia has come so close to ending its long-standing conflicts with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The country has made significant compromises and has profoundly transformed its foreign policy doctrine, particularly regarding major national issues. Armenia could derive considerable economic benefits from these developments; however, it must also ensure adequate security guarantees and safeguard its political independence and sovereignty.
Genuine efforts to reduce dependence on Russia should lead to productive diversification rather than the replacement of one dependency with another. To sustain progress on this path, Armenia and Azerbaijan must conclude a comprehensive peace treaty that addresses all outstanding issues and removes the remaining obstacles to lasting peace.
