France is worried that without a new agreement with Iran after the current set of sanctions expires, the chances of military confrontation with Teheran are almost “inevitable”.
The bleak assessment was worded by France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, after an open meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and key ministers and experts of the cabinet. Barrot told a parliamentary hearing that “the window of opportunity is narrow. We only have a few months until this [2015] accord expires. In case of failure, a military confrontation would seem to be almost inevitable.”
In October 2025, sanction relief from the UN on Iran for uranium-enriching activities will expire. The relief was agreed upon as part of a nuclear deal made in 2015 that sought to monitor the Iranian nuclear programme, with the aim of avoiding Teheran developing nuclear weapons but only nuclear power plants.
However, after the US left the deal during Donald Trump’s first term, Iran went back on its promises and, according to experts, has surpassed limits on uranium enrichment, producing stocks at a high level of fissile purity. The new levels are above what is generally used for civilian energy programmes and more in line with the production of nuclear warheads.
In the previous months, European powers have been trying to open a discourse with Iran to curb its nuclear enrichment programme in the next months. Technical talks have been ongoing for a while to lay some viable path for both sides, with an August target for a new deal. However, the US under the second Trump administration has been reluctant to bulge and prefers an aggressive posture with Teheran. According to diplomatic sources from Reuters, ministers from France, Germany, and the UK are trying to set up a talk on the issue with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio when he goes to Brussels for a NATO meeting.
