According to the latest CBOS poll, if elections were held in the first half of June, the Civic Coalition (KO) would be projected to receive 28.5% of the vote, while Law and Justice (PiS) would secure 22.1%. Additionally, two other parties, both anti-EU, far-right, and pro-Kremlin, could gain representation in the upcoming four-member Sejm: the Confederation with 12.8% support and the Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) with 9.4%. The same poll indicated that, had the parliamentary elections occurred in early June, 76.6% of respondents would have participated.
While KO, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, remains the most favoured party, it has lost 2.3% points in support since the May survey. In contrast, PiS of Jarosław Kaczyński has seen its support increase by 2.5%, now holding 22.1% of respondents’ support, while the Confederation’s support has decreased by 2.5% to 12.8%. Extremist KKP, on the other hand, grew by 1.3% to 9.4%.
The poll also indicates a notable shift in the Polish political landscape, with four parties that significantly contributed to the restoration of the rule of law in post-PiS Poland falling below the 5% electoral threshold. These include the Razem Party at 4%, the New Left at 3.9%, the Polish People’s Party (PSL) at 1.5%, and Polska 2050, which garnered 1.3% support.
Furthermore, the data reveal that approximately 42% of the electorate expresses either anti-EU sentiment or a serious level of critique of the European Union. This same percentage supports the anti-Ukraine positions advocated by their preferred parties. Additionally, the observed 20% support for far-right and extremist parties suggests that the tenure of PiS has led to a significant portion of Polish society moving away from the democratic and fundamental rights that were pivotal during the fight against the communist regime.
