The second round of the Romanian presidential election is scheduled for 18 May, set against significant political polarisation. According to recent polls, the leading candidates, George Simion from the far-right and Nicușor Dan, the pro-European Mayor of Bucharest, are currently tied in voter support. The potential victory of the far-right candidate raises concerns about a possible economic crisis, political instability, and increased isolation for the country.
In the first round of voting, held on 4 May, Simion emerged with approximately 41% of the votes, securing first place. Dan followed with 21%, while Crin Antonescu received 20.7%, Viktor Ponta garnered 13%, and Elena Lasconi achieved 2.7%.
Throughout the campaign, Simion has presented himself as an alternative to the traditional political establishment, focusing on nationalist themes and criticising the European Union. His rhetoric has included derogatory terms aimed at Dan, whom he has labelled as both autistic and Marxist. Furthermore, Simion participated in an interview on the far-right French television channel CNews, where he voiced opinions regarding French President Emmanuel Macron, alleging dictatorial tendencies and drawing comparisons between France and Iran. The programme’s host challenged these assertions, emphasising that France is a democratic nation whose president does not exhibit dictatorial behaviour.
Conversely, Nicușor Dan has consistently highlighted the importance of civic and democratic values, as well as Romania’s integral role within the European Union. His campaign has focused on promoting collaboration with the EU, particularly in relation to ongoing support for Ukraine. Dan has expressed a commitment to establishing a pro-European government that could potentially include members from various parties, such as PSD, PNL, UDMR, and possibly USR.
Among the parliamentary parties, endorsements for Dan have come from the National Liberal Party (PNL), a member of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Save Romania Union (USR), affiliated with Renew Europe, and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), also part of the EPP. Additional support for Dan provide extraparliamentary minority parties representing the Hungarian community in Transylvania and Ukrainians.
Although the Social Democratic Party (PSD) has not publicly endorsed either candidate, polls suggest that approximately 92% of voters who supported Crin Antonescu in the first round are inclined to back Dan in the upcoming election. Simion is supported by the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), a party characterised by extremist ideologies and is a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), as well as the Party of Young (POT), a faction that split from AUR.
Viktor Ponta, a former prime minister and candidate in the first round, has not yet declared his support for any candidates. Analysts predict that most of Ponta’s supporters may gravitate towards Dan, with about a quarter possibly favouring Simion.
European Parliament’s Groups EPP, S&Ds, Renew Group and the Greens support Dan, while the ECR Simion.
Opinion polls
Recent surveys indicate a competitive race between the two presidential candidates regarding voter support. An opinion poll released on 15 May by the independent research and consultancy institute IRSOP shows Nicușor Dan leading with 52% of the votes, while George Simion follows closely with 48%. This poll was conducted via telephone from 10 May to 13 May, utilising a sample size of 951 respondents.
In addition, another significant poll conducted by AtlasIntel just before the second round of the presidential elections reveals a remarkably close contest. This survey found Dan at 48.7% and Simion at 47.8%, with a larger sample size of 5,628 participants, conducted between 13 May and 15 May. A voter turnout is anticipated to exceed 60% for the second round.
However, the role of the Romanian diaspora is noteworthy in these elections, and Simion has received considerable support from Romanian immigrants.
Simion could deprive Romania of EU funds
There are implications regarding how the European Union might respond to a potential victory by Simion. Romania’s economy heavily relies on European funds, which support major infrastructure projects and significant social assistance programmes. According to G4Media.ro, should the far-right candidate Simion assume the presidency, the EU may consider reducing funds, as evidenced in the case of Hungary. Reports suggest that the European Commission may initiate the formal process for temporarily suspending EU funds for Romania, including allocations from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), potentially as early as June. This suspension is reportedly connected to exceeding deficit targets and lacking necessary reforms.
The suspension of EU funds could have significant repercussions, including a downgrade of Romania’s credit rating. Such a downgrade increases interest rates for government borrowing to meet obligations, including bills, pensions, and salaries. Furthermore, all contracts relating to EU funding would be frozen, affecting various sectors such as construction and services and potentially resulting in a wave of insolvencies and bankruptcies in the domestic economy.
Moreover, a victory for Simion, who aligns with Russian positions on Ukraine and opposes what he calls the “globalists” in Brussels, could precipitate capital flight from Romania, further straining the nation’s economic stability.
Conversely, if Nicușor Dan, who maintains a pro-European stance, is elected, there is potential to avoid the suspension of funds, provided a robust, pro-European government is established promptly.
Simion is concerned about election fairness
George Simion has expressed concerns regarding the fairness of elections. Similar to the approach taken by many far-right politicians, his party, AUR, has raised allegations about the integrity of the presidential elections without presenting any supporting evidence.
In a recent statement, AUR has requested an emergency meeting with the leadership of the Special Telecommunications Service (STS) to discuss potential electoral fraud related to the 18 May elections.
Since last week, AUR and Simion have been alleging vote fraud issues, which coincides with opinion polls indicating a decline in support for Simion. These assertions are attempts to influence public perception and could have significant implications for the integrity of the presidential election process.
