Which options does AfD have after the European elections in June?

Wikimedia Commons/CC BY-SA 3.0 de Author: Olaf Kosinsky
Alice Weidel speaking at the AfD federal party conference on April 23, 2017, in Cologne. Early March, Weidel rejected the idea of ​​millions of “remigration” in a letter to the RN.

A new scandal hit the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in January, caused by a secret meeting between key members of the party and neo-nazi groups in Potsdam. The meeting aimed to discuss a new plan, the “Remigration”, that reminded the Nazi pogroms. The “idea” was to transfer the “unassimilated German citizens” of foreign origin to North Africa after assessing their level of integration into the German culture.  

The news about the meeting caused outrage in Germany, and thousands of citizens protested against the AfD. Consequently, popular support for the party drops for the first time in months. A weekly poll by the INSA institute indicated that the party had lost a percentage point over the previous week, with its 19% approval rating being its lowest since June 2023. However, in the eastern states, it has more than 30%. Nationalism, racism and the absolute lack of the denazification project in the formerly communist east, the German People’s Republic (DDR), still impacted a considerable part of the voters. AfD organisations there are the most extremist. 

Thus, the “remigration” affair wasn’t surprising for those who have followed the AfD evolution since its constitution in 2013. The party had a rapid transition from right-wing populist and anti-EU policy to the racist and extremist right. But, the surprise was the reaction of Marine Le Pen, leader of the French far-right party National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN). The two parties are in the same political Group in the European Parliament, the Identity and Democracy (ID), and share a wide range of views. The meeting of Potsdam threatened the unity of the ID Group.

Reacting to the news, Le Pen threatened to end the ID group, saying the two parties must discuss these enormous differences of opinion regarding this matter. In 2027, Le Pen plans to run as a candidate in the French presidential election for the fourth time and is trying to reshape her political profile. The alliance with AfD could represent a burden on the ambitions of the leader of RN. 

The news about Le Pen’s reaction alarmed many, but not all, in the leadership of the AfD. Her party is the most known and powerful ally in the European Parliament and generally within the EU. A split with her could lead AfD to isolation in the next European Parliament. However, AfD seems deeply divided between those who search for keeping the party legal and those who openly flirt with Neo-Nazi ideas. 

Was the dispute resolved?

On February 20, in the afternoon, weeks after the “Potsdam meeting,” the co-chair of the AfD, Alice Weidel, travelled to Paris to meet with the parliamentary group leader of the RN, Le Pen, and explain the AfD’s view about the secret meeting. Le Pen and Weidel met at a restaurant, not at the headquarters of the RN party. During the meeting, the new leader of the RN, Jordan Bardella, was present. 

The conversation’s contents remain unknown. The “remigration” slogan appears in AfD posters as part of its official policy. In addition, AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla, a hardliner, didn’t participate in the meeting. Interestingly, only Weidel made an enthusiastic announcement about her meeting with AfD’s French allies, emphasising the friendly atmosphere. Not all AfD’s key politicians shared the same enthusiasm. Moreover, on the first days, the RN side ignored the meeting.

On February 25, Jordan Bardella said on BFMTV that Weidel has “committed” to “providing in writing” “clarifications” about its positions.

“We decided to speak with Alice Weidel, one of the two co-presidents of this political movement, to express our disagreement with this measure, which consists of withdrawing nationality from people who would have acquired nationality based on this or that origin or based on this or that religious affiliation,” explained Jordan Bardella, referring to the meeting in Paris.

“She gave us a certain number of clarifications, which she undertook to provide us in writing,” continued Bardella.

According to the RN President, Weidel “denies (…) that the position of her political movement is to withdraw nationality from people who would have acquired it because they are of foreign origin”.

Early March, Alice Weidel rejected the idea of ​​millions of “remigration” in a letter to the RN.

However, what is evident is that Le Pen cannot spend the European electoral campaign reacting to the eventual acts of the AfD.

As the AfD constantly moves towards the far right’s most extreme side, nobody can guarantee that the party will not cause another scandal. 

Remember that the European Conservative and Reformist (ECR) Group expelled AfD in March 2016. The reasons were comments made by AfD members about the use of firearms to prevent migrants from crossing the border and a meeting in Dusseldorf between leading members of AfD and the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ). The meeting, which was caught on video, “was very shocking to several members,” according to Peter van Dalen, MEP for the Christian Union, which was then a Dutch member of the ECR.

It is worth remembering that the AfD has a solid electoral base in the states of the former German Democratic Republic (DDR). There, the AfD moves in an environment strongly influenced by the DDR’s legacy.

How DDR treated the ex-Nazis

DDR was born in September 1949 by the Soviet occupation army. The new state never accepted the term “denazification” and consequently never applied such a process. In addition, no serious research on Shoah and antisemitism was allowed.

Contrary, the regime attracted thousands of medium-level military personnel of the Wehrmacht, the Nazi Army, the secret police Gestapo, as well as members of the Nazi Party and the SS. It employed them in the secret services and the military and police apparatus.

What is more, the Socialist Unity Party (SED) of Germany, the ruling party of the Soviet-occupied territories, created a new party, the National Democratic Party of Germany (NDPD), aiming to host former Nazis.

The communist regime promoted a distinct national identity based on the legacy of Luther. This nationalism proposed the DDR Germans as a separate nation and nurtured antisemitism, xenophobia and anti-migration rhetoric.

The regime applied a segregation policy on migrants from “brother” states, such as Vietnam, Cuba and Mozambique, isolating them into ghetto-like districts servicing the needs of local industries. 

The papers of the secret police, the Stasi, revealed, after the reunification of Germany, that between the first years of the ’60s and the ’80s, the cases of the salute nazi in public nazi songs as well as nazi-theme graffitied multiplied in the DDR cities.

In the 80s, the skinhead movement also appeared in DDR. It was violent and found connections with neo-nazi groups in the Federal Republic of Germany. In 1990, 500 nazis marched on the city of Dresden, one of the strongholds of AfD today. 

After the unification, the impact of the far-right and neo-nazi groups on considerable parts of the population was visible. For three days in August 1992, several hundred neo-nazis physically attacked Vietnamese workers in the Lichtenhagen district of Rostock; the riots were described as the worst mob attacks against migrants in postwar Germany. It was appalling that some 3,000 neighbourhood onlookers applauded. 

Far-right and neo-nazi parties performed spectacularly in state elections, such as the German People’s Union (DVU) in Saxony-Anhalt (12.9%) in 1998 or the National Democratic Party (NDP) in Saxony (9.2%) in 2004. 

It means in the former communist areas, there has been a constant and visible neo-Nazi presence for decades.

AfD and the future of the ID Group

The French National Rally and the AfD are members of the ID Group in the European Parliament. Among the 63 MEPs of the Group, the RN has 18, while the AfD has 9. As surveys suggest, several ID members will increase the number of their seats in the European Parliament after the June European elections. Although the League in Italy is in net decline, the French, German, Austrian, Portuguese, and Dutch parties are expected to perform much better than in the 2019 elections.

However, the Potsdam case put the unity and, thus, the future of the ID at risk.

What options does the AfD have if Le Pen decides to disband the Group?

A first option for the AfD leadership would be to condemn the Potsdam meeting and take measures against those who participated. Alice Weidel sent a letter rejecting the idea of ​​“remigration”. But how possible is it to take measures against the participants in the Potsdam meeting? Whether it needs to be clarified how many AfD members the extremists control in the western states, it is known that they control the majority of the local organisations in the eastern states. Thus, taking measures against the extremists could mean a split. Suitable for the German Democracy but disastrous for the AfD electoral performance.

A more radical option could be to expel the extremists. Thus, this would mean a rapid drop in support and the electoral collapse of the party. 

AfD leaders can also hope Le Pen will forget the Potsdam case due to the surveys that indicate the electoral triumph of the far-right in several EU countries. But, how sure is the extremists of the AfD will not make another “mistake”? 

Thus, the last option could be to live without the French party and probably without some other parties loyal to Marine Le Pen. Will the AfD be able to form a proper Group in the European Parliament after June? Parties with similar views will indeed enter the Parliament. However, it is questionable if the party’s ideological arsenal will allow cohabitation with others.

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