On 18 March, Europol unveiled its EU Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (EU-SOCTA) 2025, a critical report illuminating the shifting landscape of crime across Europe. This assessment reveals how the essence of criminal activity transforms, dramatically evolving the tactics, tools, and structures employed by organised crime networks.
The EU-SOCTA stands as one of the most thorough and insightful analyses of the serious threats posed by organised crime to the EU’s internal security. Drawing from a wealth of intelligence gathered from EU Member States and international law enforcement partners, this report not only scrutinises the current state of organised crime but also forecasts the looming future dangers. It serves as a crucial roadmap for law enforcement agencies and policymakers, equipping them with the knowledge to stay ahead of the relentless and ever-evolving tide of criminal activity.
The latest findings of the EU-SOCTA paint a stark picture: the DNA of organised crime is undergoing a profound transformation, becoming more deeply entrenched and considerably more destabilising than at any time before.
A changing DNA: how organised crime is mutating
Just as DNA maps the blueprint of life, the landscape of organised crime is undergoing a dramatic transformation. No longer confined by traditional frameworks, organised crime has evolved to thrive in a world marked by global instability, digital innovation, and new technologies. The EU Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (EU-SOCTA) highlights three key characteristics of today’s crime environment:
1. Impact on Society: Organised crime is no longer just a public safety threat; it undermines the very foundations of the EU’s institutions and society.
2. Destabilising Effects: This modern crime manifests internally through money laundering, corruption, violence, and the exploitation of vulnerable youth, while externally, criminal networks act as proxies for hybrid threat actors.
3. Digital Landscape: Criminal enterprises utilise digital infrastructures to expand and adapt at an unprecedented pace, leaving a digital footprint in nearly all forms of serious crime.
The internet has become the primary battleground for organised crime, facilitating activities like cyber fraud and drug trafficking. Criminal organisations cleverly exploit digital platforms to evade law enforcement, using data as a weapon.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping this landscape, driving criminals to exploit new technologies for efficiency and automation, making operations more scalable and challenging to detect.
“The very DNA of organised crime is changing. Criminal networks have evolved into global, technology-driven criminal enterprises, exploiting digital platforms, illicit financial flows and geopolitical instability to expand their influence. They are more adaptable, and more dangerous than ever before,” notes Catherine De Bolle, Europol Executive Director.
Breaking the criminal code
The EU-SOCTA 2025 report identifies seven critical areas where criminal networks are increasingly sophisticated and dangerous:
1. Cyber-attacks: Including ransomware and threats to critical infrastructure. 2. Online fraud: Driven by AI and stolen personal data. 3. Child exploitation: Enabled by AI-generated abuse material and online grooming. 4. Migrant smuggling: Networks exploiting crises for profit. 5. Drug trafficking: An evolving market with increased violence and youth recruitment. 6. Firearms trafficking: Fuelled by technology and online sales. 7. Waste crime: Exploiting legitimate businesses at the expense of the environment.
As elements of criminal operations shift to the digital realm—impacting recruitment, communication, and payments—society faces a pressing need to combat the evolving threats posed by organised crime.Â
“Our security landscape is evolving dramatically. The SOCTA report clearly shows how serious and organised crime – and the threat it poses to our security – is also changing. We need to make every effort to protect the European Union. Our internal security strategy will address these challenges,” stressed Magnus Brunner, European Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration.
Breaking the criminal codeÂ
The key criminal threats outlined in the EU-SOCTA 2025 reveal intricate webs of interconnected elements that bolster and magnify their impact in diverse and alarming ways. Law enforcement must keenly analyse these overlapping factors to effectively combat these threats when devising strategies to address the pervasive issues of serious and organised crime.
At the core of serious and organised crime lies a sophisticated network of criminals who seize opportunities to act as conduits for hybrid threat actors in the digital landscape. These networks adeptly harness the power of artificial intelligence and cutting-edge technology to pursue their nefarious goals. Transcending borders and even operating from prison cells, criminal organisations constantly refine their tactics to enhance their illicit operations.
The world of criminal finance is a labyrinthine realm where money laundering methods evolve rapidly. Illicit gains are increasingly channelled into a shadowy parallel financial system designed to shield and amplify criminal wealth. Digital platforms and innovative technologies, such as blockchain, serve as the bedrock of this system, fortifying it against disruptions and threats.
Corruption lurks like a deadly virus, insidiously enabling organised crime and facilitating its malignant spread across all sectors. As the digital age takes hold, criminals are not only targeting individuals with access to critical digital infrastructures but are also employing sophisticated online recruitment strategies to extend their reach even further.
The chilling escalation of violence associated with organised crime is becoming increasingly evident in several EU Member States, spilling over into the very fabric of society. This violence ebbs and flows with the dynamics of criminal markets, characterised by fierce competition and conflict. Empowered by encrypted communication tools and online platforms, these networks execute borderless recruitment, extortion, and coordination with alarming ease.
The exploitation of vulnerable young individuals by criminal enterprises tears at the social fabric while simultaneously providing a protective shield for criminal leaders, concealing them from scrutiny and prosecution. These malicious tactics enable criminal networks to flourish, maximise profits, and fortify their resilience, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of crime and corruption.
To break this insidious cycle, law enforcement must adopt a holistic approach, integrating strategies that target both the principal criminal markets and the underlying mechanisms that sustain them, dismantling the complex machinery of organised crime.
“Breaking this new criminal code means dismantling the systems that allow these networks to thrive – targeting their finances, disrupting their supply chains and staying ahead of their use of technology. Europol is at the heart of Europe’s fight against organised crime, but staying ahead of this evolving threat means reinforcing our capabilities – expanding our intelligence, operational reach and partnerships to protect the EU’s security for the years to come,” adds Catherine De Bolle.
