The results of the first round of the Romanian presidential elections on 4 May have sparked significant concern within the country’s democratic political landscape. George Simion, a far-right candidate supported by both the Trump administration and Moscow, won the election with 41% of the vote. This outcome has prompted Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to propose to his socialdemocratic party (PSD) to accept his resignation from his government post and leave the government coalition. The leadership of the PSD has unanimously accepted his resignation, as reported by political sources to G4Media. In the interim, the PSD ministers will continue to serve in their positions until a new government is established.
Simion will face liberal Bucharest mayor NicuÈ™or Dan in a run-off election scheduled for 18 May. Notably, Simion has expressed admiration for Corneliu Codreanu and the fascist and anti-Semitic Iron Guard movement in interwar Romania. Simion’s party, the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), is a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and advocates for irredentist ideas that affect neighbouring countries, including Hungary, Moldova, and Ukraine. He is against any help to Ukraine, aligning with many Kremlin views.
The implications of the upcoming run-off are profound. Should Simion secure victory, it may push Romania to escalate tensions with NATO and the European Union. Such an outcome could lead to substantial economic repercussions and political instability, including significant capital flight and a decline in public confidence in the economy.
Additionally, Romania risks being viewed as a “black sheep” within the EU, aligning itself more closely with Hungary and Slovakia and facing limited access to European Union funds. It is conceivable that the country would operate under the influence of foreign powers, primarily from Washington and Moscow, which could destabilise the country.
In the wake of the election results, Prime Minister Ciolacu would communicate his proposal to coalition leaders from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the Liberal National Party (PNL), and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). Ciolacu faced considerable criticism from his party following the coalition’s candidate, Crin Antonescu, falling short in the presidential elections. Furthermore, he did not advance to the second round of the presidential elections last year, having been surpassed by Călin Georgescu and Elena Lasconi.
Leaders within the government coalition are now deliberating on candidates for the interim prime minister position as well as the future dynamics of the coalition. While several politicians have been mentioned for this role, Daniel David, an independent proposed by the conservative PNL and currently serving as Minister of Education, has emerged as a prominent candidate.
While the prospects for NicuÈ™or Dan may be challenging, the crisis following Simion’s victory may present an opportunity for democratic parties to unite and reinforce the coalition. A coordinated response from all democratic forces, including the liberal Save Romania Union (USR), is crucial in addressing the challenges the far-right candidate poses in the upcoming second round of the presidential election.
The democratic community must rally behind the liberal candidate, setting aside political differences and personal grievances. Moreover, political parties in Romania should engage in thorough discussions regarding the rise of far-right and fascist movements, focusing on strengthening the resilience of Romanian democracy as time permits.
