A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before spring, and European allies must maintain their support despite corruption issues in Kyiv, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told The Associated Press. He noted that Europe needs “sisu,” a Finnish term for endurance and resilience, to endure the upcoming winter as Russia continues its hybrid attacks and information warfare.
As a key mediator between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Stubb understands the stakes, given Finland’s 1,340-kilometre border with Russia. Historically, Finland lost approximately 10% of its territory to the Soviet Union during the 1940s, but its troops demonstrated remarkable “sisu” by inflicting heavy losses on the Soviet army despite being outnumbered.
Finland’s neutral stance shifted after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, leading the country to join NATO. Stubb leverages his relationship with Trump to advocate for Ukraine.
“I can explain to President Trump what Finland went through, or how I see the situation on the battlefield, or how you deal with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin? And then, you know, if he accepts one out of 10 ideas, that’s good,” he said.
Stubb spoke to AP on Saturday at a military base north of Helsinki, where he observed Finnish volunteers in defence training. Wearing a jacket with “sisu” on the back, he watched them practice evacuating wounded soldiers in freezing temperatures. Stubb emphasised that Zelenskyy must quickly address allegations of kickbacks and embezzlement, as these scandals play into Russia’s hands. He also urged European leaders to consider boosting support for Kyiv, which is facing Russian advances on the battlefield.
“I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,” Stubb said, adding it would be good to “get something going” by March.
The primary issues for a ceasefire include security guarantees for Ukraine, economic reconstruction, and resolving territorial disputes. Stubb stressed that Trump and European leaders need to increase pressure on Russia and Putin to alter his strategy, as Putin’s goals to undermine Ukraine’s independence have not changed since the start of the war.
He suggested using the frozen Russian assets in Europe to support Ukraine and advocated for heightened military pressure on Moscow. Stubb praised Trump for sanctioning major Russian energy companies like Lukoil and Rosneft, but argued that more needs to be done to empower Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Recently, Trump denied Ukraine’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles, which would allow strikes deeper into Russia, as Ukraine currently lacks the necessary launchers. Stubb noted that Ukraine is still negotiating with the U.S. for additional firepower.
Trump’s fluctuating stance on Ukraine
In mid-October, the White House announced President Trump would meet with President Putin in Budapest, but the meeting was cancelled just days later. This decision followed a call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during which Rubio acknowledged that “the Russians haven’t moved an inch”. It deemed it unwise to involve Trump in a fruitless meeting.
Stubb described the cancellation as “another example of a strategic mistake by the Russians.” Trump has alternated between seeking rapprochement with Putin and applying pressure on him, a pattern he also follows with Zelenskyy. Stubb emphasised the importance of being patient and accepting reality, stating, “We need security guarantees for Ukraine and a ceasefire. How can we achieve that?”
“It’s been a bit of a grind. I guess you need ‘sisu’ in these types of negotiations as well.”
He noted that efforts are paying off, and the military options for ensuring Ukraine’s security after a ceasefire or peace negotiation are now clear, with various countries pledging resources. While acknowledging some missteps by Ukraine, Stubb praised Zelenskyy, stating, “Leading a country in wartime is an existential challenge, and you learn a lot from such situations.”
Stubb finds himself in a stronger position than many European leaders when engaging with Donald Trump, as he studied in the U.S. on a golf scholarship and spent several hours playing golf with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. He believes golf helped him connect with the president. While Trump and Zelenskyy have a rocky relationship, Stubb thinks European leaders can help bridge the divide, stating, “We interpret President Trump to President Zelenskyy and vice versa.”
Regarding negotiations with Putin, Stubb emphasised that only Trump should engage directly with him, suggesting that the European Union is unlikely to open a direct line of communication with the Russian leader anytime soon.
Trump is negotiating with Putin while European countries face incursions from Russian drones and fighter jets, as well as reported sabotage efforts. Stubb, speaking to AP, pointed out that Russia is waging both a kinetic war in Ukraine and a hybrid war in Europe, blurring the line between war and peace.
He noted that Russia aims to destabilise Europe through chaos and panic, using attacks like arson, vandalism, and propaganda. To counter these threats, he suggested adopting a Finnish approach: staying cool, calm, and resilient, or embodying ‘sisu.’
This article used information from The Associated Press.
