Portugal risks heading into a third general election in three years after centre-right Prime Minister Luis Montenegro called for a confidence vote for his minority-supported government over a potential conflict of interest.
Oppositions, led by the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), want to call an official parliamentary inquiry over data protection consultancy Spinumviva, a company founded in 2021 by Montenegro that has been under the ownership of his wife and sons since 2022. According to the opposition, the company made several contracts with private companies that benefitted Montenegro and is now asking for investigations. Currently, the company is not under inquiry, but an open investigation into an anonymous complaint links Montenegro with the company’s dealings.
According to Reuters, Montenegro wants to avoid a prolonged inquiry that would cloud his remaining term. An early election could help him capitalise on favourable ratings for him and his Social Democratic Party (PSD).
The latest polls show that the current government alliance of PSD and conservative CDS-PP should get around 30% of the vote, ahead of PS, while far-right party Chega has 18%. This is the same situation that landed Montenegro and his allies in the government in the last general election in 2024. Currently, the coalition has 80 seats in the 230-seat Portuguese parliament.Â
The government could lose the confidence vote called for next Tuesday, as PS and Chega, in total, have 128 seats and should vote against Montenegro. PS could abstain only in exchange for a parliament inquiry on Spinumviva. PSD seems also reluctant to replace Montenegro and propose another head of government to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. He suggested that, as soon as possible, new elections could be held, either on 11 or 18 May.
