As the conflict in Iran keeps going, the United States are running possible scenarios to end it, one of them being a definite destruction of Iran’s uranium stockpile, but experts warn that the operation seems very complex and risky.
The uncertainty over the conflict’s target remains a topic, as US President Donald Trump changed his reasoning for the war, but always maintained that Iran should not have the capabilities of building a nuclear weapon.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has 440.9 kilograms of uranium at 60% of purity. Nuclear weapons need a 90% level to be operational. The current amount could allow Tehran to build up to 10 nuclear bombs, should the regime decide so. Iran had always kept its position that it only wants to build nuclear energy and not weapons, but both the IAEA and Western countries contested this.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the Associated Press that around half of the uranium is stored in underground tunnels close to Isfahan, where Iran has one of its nuclear complexes for uranium gas purification. Other quantities should be at the Natanz nuclear site and possibly at a facility in Fordo.
However, Grossi’s estimates are outdated and do not include all of Iran’s uranium. Ever since June 2025, when a joint Israel-US operation targeted operational centres of Iran’s nuclear programme, the IAEA has not been able to conduct new inspections in the country.
Even if the locations of all the stockpiles are known, extracting and neutralising the material could prove difficult and costly. The most efficient way, according to some experts, is to neutralise the uranium via a process called downblending, in which uranium is mixed with lower-enriched materials that reduce its radiation levels and make it suitable only for civilian use.
However, downblending the material in Iran may be next to impossible, as the infrastructure for such a process may not be in place anymore after a month of bombing, which means that a land force will have to arrive at the storage location and move the canisters that contain the uranium. The canisters can store up to 50 kilograms of uranium and are heavy. They must be kept apart to avoid leaks. Also, it is currently impossible to know the level of damage the canisters may have sustained, so anyone entering the underground storage facilities will have to wear a hazmat suit to minimise possible toxic effects.
Thus, even if the US knows where all the stockpiles are, as US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the House of Representatives, the mission may entail immense logistical challenges, including extracting material and constructing a landing strip. Without a negotiated solution where Iran allows technicians to work in tandem with them to remove the uranium, any military mission may result in casualties.
This article used information from The Associated Press.
