Geert Wilders, the leader of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), a member of the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group in the European Parliament, has withdrawn his support for the government led by Prime Minister Dick Schoof. This decision follows significant disagreements with coalition partners concerning immigration and asylum policies, which may lead to new elections in the coming weeks unless a minority government is established.
However, recent opinion polls conducted before the current governmental crisis reveal a notable shift in voter support among political parties compared to the results of the November 2023 national election. Following those elections, an extensive consultation period among conservative parties and Wilders led to the formation of a four-party coalition on 2 July 2024. This coalition was an experiment for the Netherlands, comprising the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), the centrist New Social Contract (NSC), and the far-right PVV. However, this coalition disbanded on 3 June.
Wilders announced his withdrawal after disagreements with his partners regarding the immigration and asylum agenda. A call from the Prime Minister on Tuesday aimed at avoiding a crisis was dismissed by Wilders, who had been advocating for a 10-point plan focused on substantially reducing the number of asylum seekers and migrants. At the end of May, he held a press conference to convey that his patience had “worn thin,” and he threatened to dissolve the coalition if his measures were not adopted within a few weeks.
In the November 2023 elections, the PVV secured first place, obtaining 23.49% of the vote and 37 of the 150 seats in the second chamber of The Netherlands. The coalition partners included the VVD, which garnered 15.24% of the vote with 24 seats; the NSC, with 12.88% and 20 seats; and the BBB, with 4.65% and seven seats. During the formation of the Schoof government, Wilders instituted policies intended to enforce what he termed “the strictest policy ever seen” on asylum and migration. Nevertheless, he has expressed dissatisfaction with the outcomes, noting that net migration has remained positive in 2024, with the arrival of 130,000 foreigners.
Wilders proposed the mobilisation of the military to monitor the borders and completely close them to asylum seekers. He also sought to limit family reunification further, return all Syrian exiles to their home country, suspend the construction of reception centres, and expedite the expulsion of foreign-born criminals—even those born in the Netherlands. Such initiatives, however, would encounter significant legal challenges and contradictions with international treaties.
The other three coalition partners have publicly voiced their concerns, suggesting that Wilders may be engaging in political manoeuvring. They believe he may have orchestrated the crisis to distract from the shortcomings of Migration Minister Marjolein Faber, a close ally of him. By triggering a crisis focused on immigration—an issue of considerable concern for his voter base—while attributing blame to his coalition partners, Wilders appears to be positioning himself for potential electoral gains.
The latest opinion polls, conducted before the government crisis, indicate that the PVV has achieved increased popularity, now standing at 31%. Among his former coalition partners, only the VVD has also experienced a rise in voter support, currently reaching 30%. Conversely, the situation for the NSC and BBB is considerably challenging, with polls reflecting only 1% and 2% support, respectively. Meanwhile, the opposition alliance of Social Democrats and Greens, led by the former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans, has gained significant traction and is now at 30%. Additionally, the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), a member of the EPP Group, appears to have recovered from its previous crisis, which resulted in a mere 3.31% in the 2023 elections; recent polls indicate a rise to 18%.
