Sweden is set to hold an election on Sunday that will be pivotal in shaping the country’s future leadership. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, a conservative leader, is seeking re-election for a second four-year term. The election also presents a significant opportunity for a far-right party to obtain ministerial positions for the first time. In contrast, the centre-left opposition is aiming to regain power.
The election has primarily focused on the leadership question, with less attention given to specific policy issues. Over 8 million citizens, from a population of approximately 10.6 million, are eligible to participate in this important electoral process for the 349-seat parliament, known as the Riksdag, located in Stockholm, which will elect the next prime minister.
This is an election about leadership
Ulf Kristersson has led Sweden since 2022 through a three-party centre-right coalition, relying on the far-right Sweden Democrats for parliamentary support. If reelected, the coalition may secure Cabinet positions.
Kristersson faces Magdalena Andersson of the centre-left Social Democrats, a party that has often governed Sweden post-World War II. Andersson was prime minister from 2021 until her defeat in the last election.
Experts describe the campaign as fragmented, with critical issues like healthcare overshadowed by debates over government formation. Zeth Isaksson, a sociologist at Stockholm University, noted, “Crime and inflation have decreased, so people are focusing on who will be in government, which is the main issue of this election.”
Two prominent political blocs exist: one of four parties on the right and another of four on the left. The central question is not simply which party wins, but which bloc can form a majority. To secure parliamentary seats, individual parties must achieve at least 4% of the vote.
At first glance, it would be remarkable if the opposition parties, which have consistently led in opinion polls for nearly four years since the last election, fail to achieve a majority. Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor of political science at Södertörn University, suggests that the Social Democrats’ “extremely defensive“ campaign may have diminished their support, leading some voters to question their motivations for backing the party. Conversely, the right-wing bloc aims to present itself as more unified than its competitors, an effort that may have had a modest impact, Aylott says.
White supremacist party could be in the next Cabinet
A key factor in this election is the Sweden Democrats, who gained 20.5% of the vote in 2022, making them the largest party on the right. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said his Moderate party would include them in the government if the right-wing bloc maintains a majority, though he would remain prime minister.
Founded in the 1980s by individuals with ties to right-wing extremist groups, the Sweden Democrats have moderated their image under Jimmie Åkesson since 2005. Aylott highlights some apprehension about the possibility of Sweden Democrats ministers, a concern the Social Democrats have capitalised on. Despite a surge in far-right populism elsewhere in Europe, analysts like Isaksson suggest the Sweden Democrats, a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group at the European Parliament, may have reached their peak influence.
Swedes support Ukraine
“The biggest threat to Sweden’s security is the war in Ukraine, with widespread support for Ukraine and strong opposition to Russia,“ said Aylott. Sweden’s Psychological Defence Agency said the election isn’t a priority for Russia, as this support reduces incentives for interference.
Just over a week before the election, Expo magazine reported that a civil servant for the Sweden Democrats had shared Russian state narratives on social media. Her partner, Gustav Gellerbrant, who heads the party’s coordination office, claimed her posts were misinterpreted as sarcasm. To keep the campaign focused, he opted for parental leave.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated that “there is no room for pro-Russian narratives in Sweden.“ After decades of neutrality, Sweden joined NATO as its 32nd member in 2024, a move the previous government initiated after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and Kristersson completed.
This article used information from The Associated Press.
