In one of the most critical presidential election in post-communist Poland, a candidate inspired and supported by Donald Trump and aligned with Vladimir Putin’s views on Ukraine narrowly won. In a highly polarised environment, the turnout was 71.31%, according to the electoral commission, a record for the second round of a presidential election.
Karol Nawrocki, the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) candidate, who, according to election commission data, obtained 50.89% of the vote, will continue the work of current President Andrzej Duda. Thus blocking the necessary reforms initiated by the government of Donald Tusk.
In brief, the anti-EU front in Poland has achieved a victory that will leave the country in an ambiguous situation regarding its relations and commitments to the EU. Additionally, the search by Nawrocki for support from the Trump far-right MAGA movement and the adoption of the most significant Russian demands about the future of Ukraine creates a dangerous national security precedent.
PiS against the rule of law
The PiS party governed Poland from 2015 to 2023 after securing control of both the presidency, the Senate and the parliament. During this time, the party, which shifted to nationalist-populist positions in the early 2010s, took steps that challenged the rule of law. The Polish constitutional crisis arose when the government refused to comply with European and Polish constitutional law, enabling it to appoint judges to the Constitutional Tribunal in 2015 and expand its influence over the judiciary. This led to the Supreme Court crisis in 2017 and the introduction of the Polish judicial disciplinary panel law in 2019. As a result, the legislative and executive branches of the Polish government gained de facto control over the appointment of judges.
Additionally, the PiS government imposed restrictions on media freedom, academic independence, and a wide range of human rights, including the right to abortion. It promoted an ideology that combined ultra-nationalism, Catholic bigotry, Islamophobia, and homophobia. The party allied itself with other far-right groups, such as the Brothers of Italy, as well as autocratic governments, including that of Robert Fico in Slovakia and the non-democratic regime of Viktor Orbán in Hungary.
Controlling the media, the PiS government distorted facts about the refugee crisis and the real achievements of the EU. It managed to transform the pro-EU sentiments of the population into anti-EU hatred and turn the traditional fear of Poles towards Russia into anti-Ukrainian feelings. A criminalising the abortion law and an anti-LGBT campaign by PiS mayors severely affected human rights in the country.
Tusk strives to restore EU-Poland relationship
The European Union has expressed strong condemnation of the actions that undermine the rule of law in Poland and has initiated an Article 7 process in response. In 2017, the European Commission referred Poland to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Consequently, in rulings issued in 2019 and 2020, the ECJ directed Poland to suspend several laws that adversely affect the independence of the judiciary. Unfortunately, these rulings were largely ignored by the PiS government.
As a consequence of these developments, the EU has decided to block access to substantial funding totalling €111.9 billion, which includes €35.4 billion from the recovery fund and €76.5 billion from the cohesion fund.
Tusk won the 2023 elections, promising major reforms, including gender rights, an end to the PiS-made law criminalising abortions, and restoring judicial and media freedoms. Tusk also vowed to rekindle the relationship between the bloc and Poland regarding EU recovery and cohesion funds.
However, despite the country’s urgent need for a government to tackle these issues, he formed his coalition government only in December of the same year, as President Duda had used his constitutional powers to delay the formation of a pro-EU government that would implement a reformist policy as much as possible.
Moreover, as the Tusk government lacks the necessary three-fifths parliamentary majority, Duda used his veto power to block several reforms that the government saw as central to bringing the country back on an EU pathway.
Partnering with the far-right
Nawrocki is likely to continue on Duda’s pattern.
Karol Nawrocki, a recent entrant into the political arena and former head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), framed his election as a referendum on Donald Tusk’s 18-month administration. The immediate repercussions of his election on the economy were evident, with Poland’s blue-chip stock index declining by over 2% during early trading on Monday as investors expressed concerns regarding potential political stagnation. Additionally, the zloty experienced a depreciation against the euro.
Nawrocki’s campaign focused on prioritising economic and social policies that favour Polish citizens over other nationalities, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine. He pledged to uphold Poland’s sovereignty and criticised “excessive interference from Brussels in national matters”.
In a strategic move to garner support, Nawrocki met with Sławomir Mentzen, a pro-Kremlin candidate who secured third place in the first round of voting with 14.81% of the votes, shortly before the election on 22 May. Together, they signed an eight-point declaration that included commitments, including to refuse ratification of Ukraine’s NATO accession, safeguard Polish citizens’ rights to firearms by opposing restrictive legislation, resist the transfer of competencies from Polish authorities to European Union institutions, and refrain from ratifying any new EU treaties that could compromise Poland’s position, particularly regarding its voting power and veto rights.
Nawrocki, like Andrzej Duda, is expected to obstruct any initiatives by the Tusk government aimed at liberalising abortion laws or reforming the judiciary. While the Polish parliament wields significant power, the president retains the capacity to veto legislation.
Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and a representative of Tusk’s ruling Civic Coalition (KO), received 49.11% of the votes. During his campaign, he advocated for a pro-European agenda and supported Ukraine’s aspirations to join both the European Union and NATO.
