Discover why May’s Polish presidential elections are critical for the country

In October 2023, the liberal Civic Platform (PO) of Donald Tusk won the parliamentary elections against the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), whose eight-year rule brought the country into conflict with the EU. The PiS government undermined judicial, academic and media freedoms and introduced a law criminalising abortion.

The European Commission began rule of law proceedings after the PiS government restructured the judiciary in a manner that the EU believed weakened democratic checks and balances and allowed government control over the courts. Consequently, the EU blocked access to significant funding, totalling 111.9 billion euros—comprising 35.4 billion euros from the recovery fund and 76.5 billion euros from the cohesion fund.

Tusk won the elections, promising major reforms, including gender rights, an end to the PiS-made law concerning abortions, and restoring judicial and media freedoms. Tusk also vowed to rekindle the relationship between the bloc and Poland regarding EU recovery and cohesion funds. However, despite the country urgently needing a government to tackle all these issues, he formed his coalition government only in December of the same year.

Why? President Andrzej Duda, a PiS choice and fervent ally, used his constitutional powers to delay the formation of a pro-EU government which would implement a reformist policy as much as possible. Moreover, as the Tusk government lacks the necessary three-fifths parliamentary majority, Duda used his veto right to block several reforms the government saw central to bring the country back on an EU pathway.

Consequently, a non-hostile president, ready to cooperate with the government and allow progressive reforms, is pivotal for the success of the Tusk government. His government has already succeeded in ending the isolation of Poland. In May 2024, the European Commission declared the absence of a risk of a serious breach of the rule of law in Poland and stopped the six-year-long process against Poland. 

Duda has consistently opposed any reforms proposed by the government. He vetoed measures like allowing prescription-free access to the morning-after pill and officially recognising Silesian as a minority language. He has also stated he would reject any attempts to liberalise Poland’s abortion laws. Furthermore, PiS and Duda’s alignment with the Trump administration poses an ongoing risk to Poland’s role within the EU.       

Poland plays a crucial role in Europe’s evolving security landscape. Donald Tusk aims to use the country’s EU presidency to strengthen European defence capabilities in response to the ongoing security threats posed by the war in Ukraine. The presidential election, vital for Tusk’s political future, is scheduled for 18 May. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round, a second round will occur on 1 June. The outcome of the May election will largely determine whether Tusk’s coalition government can successfully implement its agenda.

Russian interference

There is no surprise that Russian interference through disinformation campaigns, cyber-attacks against institutions and potential hybrid terrorist acts try to influence the way Poles will vote. The pro-Kremlin far-right Konfederacja coalition already has a notable push through social media. The PiS changed its position of unconditional support of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, while the anti-Ukrainian and consequently pro-Moscow sentiment rose among the traditionally anti-Russia Poles. In this environment, there are also pressures from the anti-EU Trump administration, which would be satisfied with a nationalist president.

For example, in March, the European Parliament in Strasbourg voted on a resolution to strengthen EU defence, which included an amendment recognising the East Shield as a key project for the EU’s common security. The East Shield is a Polish initiative aimed at fortifying its eastern borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, representing a significant investment in national security. The resolution passed with 419 votes in favour and 204 against but did not receive support from PiS and the far-right, pro-Kremlin Konfederacja MEPs. Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticised the opposition’s behaviour, stating that PiS’s vote, which aligned with the Confederation, betrayed Poland’s defence interests.

A pro or anti-EU president?

Several candidates ran in the presidential election, from the anti-semite far-right to the left. However, polls suggest that the final battle will be between Rafał Trzaskowski, the Civic Coalition’s candidate, and Karol Nawrocki, a historian who the PiS supports. There is also an outsider, the pro-Kremlin Sławomir Mentzen, who could play a role in the second round.

Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of the Polish capital, Warsaw, is an experienced politician who held ministerial posts and was a candidate in the 2020 Polish presidential election, having lost narrowly to Duda. Moreover, although a PO candidate, he has a distinctive liberal-progressive political stance. Karol Nawrocki, a historian and the head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) historical foundation, is politically unknown – as was current President Duda in 2015. However, Nawrocki is an ultraconservative who fully aligns with the PiS positions on several social issues.

Sławomir Mentzen, who co-chairs the Confederation of Freedom and Independence and leads the New Hope party, has been on the campaign trail since 20 August 2024, the earliest of all the candidates. His campaign targets poorer neighbourhoods and rural areas. Interestingly, his New Hope party partners with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the European Parliament, a partnership curious enough as the Polish party claims to be the most genuine patriotic force in Poland. At the same time, AfD wants to revise the German-Polish borders.    

The latest polls, from 25 April, indicate that PO’s candidate has a clear leading position with 31.7% while the PiS’ choice is at 27.6%. Support for Mentzen constantly drops, as the far-right candidate in recent weeks lost considerable support and is now at 11.3%.