Europe’s already complex relations with Ankara have become even more complicated following the mass protests underway in Turkey just as the European Union finds itself reassessing many of its principles against the expediency of securing its vital interests in the wake of Washington’s dramatic shake-up of NATO. Ankara’s EU membership candidacy remains stalled in a limbo of inaction while NATO allies – most EU states and Turkey – stay pledged to one another’s defence in the event of attack. Given the alliance’s state of flux, Europe is striving to step up support for Ukraine, aware that it can no longer rely on the US as before.
Having blamed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the decline of democratic standards in Turkey that resulted in its EU membership bid coming to a “standstill “, Brussels now appears to be toning down its rhetoric. This comes just as Amnesty has denounced Turkey’s use of “unnecessary and indiscriminate force by security forces against peaceful demonstrators” following the arrest of Erdoğan’s chief political opponent.
France’s foreign ministry has labelled Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu‘s detention and that of “numerous others” as “serious attacks on democracy”, while a top German diplomat warned that “political opponents don’t belong in jails or court”.
Brussels has been far milder in its official pronouncements. “The arrest of the mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the protesters give rise to questions regarding Turkey’s adherence to its long established democratic tradition”, European Commission (EC) spokesperson Guillaume Mercier told reporters on Monday. “Turkey must uphold democratic values”, he added. Mercer refused to speculate as to whether the bloc would cancel or delay planned political partnership talks with Turkish officials next month.
Senior European Policy Centre analyst Amanda Paul told Deutsche Welle (DW) that the EC’s response reflected “the new geopolitical situation we’re all living in.” The Turkish army, she noted, is second in size to that of the US within the NATO alliance. Moreover, with Ukraine and Russia just across the Black Sea and Turkey straddling the European and Asian continents as it does, Ankara has a “geopolitical weight” many other countries in the region lack. On top of that, she added, Turkey’s thriving defence industry “has a lot to offer the EU at a time when there are significant shortages of weapons.”
Prior to the current unrest, Erdoğan had been enjoying a diplomatic high, firmly at the core of the “coalition of the willing”, those European states trying to bolster an eventual peace deal in Ukraine. According to Paul, this is why Turkey “has become a major foreign policy actor in its neighbourhood and beyond, whether that’s in Syria, the South Caucasus or Central Asia.” This feeling that he is an almost “indispensable partner to Europe” has given Erdoğan the confidence to move against Imamoglu.
Nonetheless, pressure on Turkey’s European partners to respond with greater criticism is considered inevitable. European mayors meeting in Strasbourg today are expected to slam a “relentless campaign of judicial harassment” against their Istanbul counterpart. European Parliament members will likely call for tougher measures from the EU and their national governments.
