Slovenia’s ruling Freedom Movement (GS), led by incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob, appears poised to win the parliamentary elections held on Sunday. However, the party will need to seek additional coalition partners in order to establish a functional government, as exit polls suggest a decline in its projected seat count. The liberal GS garnered 29.9% of the vote, securing 30 seats in the 90-seat parliament, down from the 41 seats it held in the previous election, according to an exit poll conducted by public broadcaster TV Slovenia and commercial network Pop TV.
The populist conservative opposition, the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), led by Janez Janša, is projected to secure second place with 27 seats in parliament, according to a Mediana poll. This election is significant because it reflects voter sentiment, particularly in light of the rise of far-right and pro-Kremlin political parties since the 2024 European Parliament elections. The outcome will substantially influence Slovenia’s economic future and the state of democratic governance.
The electoral process has been complicated by serious allegations of corruption and concerns regarding foreign interference. A final report from a parliamentary inquiry has raised substantial allegations against the conservative parties SDS and New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi). The report suggests that these parties may have established a complex system to divert public and private funds into media and political structures benefiting their interests during the tenure of former Prime Minister Janša from 2020 to 2022.
Furthermore, a series of leaked recordings and covert videos have created considerable unrest in Slovenia’s political landscape ahead of the elections, leading to allegations of corruption and fears of foreign influence. These materials, disseminated on social media and through a new website, purportedly featured conversations involving former government officials and a prominent lawyer. Those implicated have denied the allegations, asserting that the recordings were manipulated or taken out of context.
Concerns about potential foreign interference in the electoral process have also surfaced following reports of Janša meeting with officials from the Israeli private intelligence firm Black Cube. While Janša has confirmed his consultation with an advisor from the firm, he has denied any wrongdoing.
These elections are pivotal, with the potential to shape whether Slovenia continues as a democratic welfare state or transitions towards illiberal governance.
