Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election in four years has culminated in a decisive victory for the newly formed Progressive Bulgaria (PB) coalition, led by former President Rumen Radev, as indicated by exit polls and parallel count results. Notably, only five parties and coalitions have surpassed the 4% threshold required for entry into the National Assembly, while a sixth party is making efforts to secure a position. Additionally, five parliamentary parties are set to remain outside of parliament. According to exit polls, voter turnout was recorded at 43.4%.
The data show that Radev’s PB is projected to receive 39.6% of the vote, ahead of the centre-right GERB-SDS coalition, led by the veteran politician Boyko Borissov, which is expected to achieve 15.1%. The liberal coalition, Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), which may collaborate with Radev in a future coalition government, is expected to garner 13.5% of the vote. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) is estimated to receive approximately 8.1%. The most significant decline in support has been observed for the right-wing extremist party Revival (Vazrazhdane), which has dropped from 13% in December polls to 5.1%. The pro-Russian socialists of BSP-OL are expected to receive 4.1%.
However, parallel poll results from polling agencies indicate that Rumen Radev’s PB coalition emerges as the clear victor in Bulgaria’s snap parliamentary elections, with approximately 45% of the vote, potentially securing up to 123 seats in parliament. This outcome would likely give the coalition a majority of more than 120 seats in the 240-member National Assembly. Following Progressive Bulgaria are GERB-SDS with 42 seats, Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) with 12.1% and 40 seats, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) with 7.3% and 20 seats, and Revival with 4.2% and 15 seats. According to the parallel count, the BSP – United Left is projected to remain outside of the National Assembly.
These results could facilitate the establishment of more stable coalition governments, with a majority in the assembly requiring 121 out of 240 seats. The results of overseas voting are still pending and may lead to further adjustments.
Despite Radev’s substantial electoral victory, the anticipated percentage may not enable him to form a one-party government, compelling him to seek partnerships with other parties for governance. “Progressive Bulgaria is prepared to explore various options to ensure that Bulgaria has a parliament-elected and stable government,” he stated in response to inquiries regarding the possibility of a minority government, as reported by BTA.
In brief remarks to the press, Radev highlighted his party’s commitment to prevent another election, deeming it detrimental to Bulgaria. “It would signify a transition from crisis to crisis, while our focus should be on working diligently to emerge from these challenges,” he emphasised.
Radev’s comparatively ambiguous campaign stance has rendered him open to collaboration with a wide array of parties in the future parliament. According to Mario Bikarski, a senior Eastern and Central Europe analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, although Radev has officially condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he has consistently opposed military aid to Kyiv and favoured resuming dialogue with Russia to resolve the conflict. Notably, Radev appears reluctant to form a formal coalition with the hard-right, pro-Russian Revival party, Bikarski told the Associated Press.
“Rumen Radev is what Boyko Borisov was in 2009 and Simeon Saxe-Cobourg-Gotha was in 2001. Cyclical occurrence in Bulgarian politics. Big unknown is his staying power once he takes responsibility for running the country. Radev’s core electorate migh prove much narrower over time,” Dimitar Bechev, an experienced analyst and author specialised in Russia, Turkey and the Balkans, commented on X.
Furthermore, Radev indicated that Progressive Bulgaria shares common ground with Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria, suggesting that a partnership with PP-DB may represent the most viable option for a coalition government.
