A new opinion poll published in Hungary today indicates that Hungary’s main opposition party, Tisza, maintained a 10-point lead over the authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz party. Orbán is facing his most significant challenge to authority since Fidesz’s landslide victory in 2010, in the coming parliamentary election scheduled for 12 April.
However, the election outcome remains uncertain, as the regime installed in Hungary by Orbán constantly undermines the rule of law. As a result, the advocate general for the European Union’s highest court has recommended that the court annul a 2023 European Commission decision that released billions in funding to Hungary, funds that had previously been suspended due to concerns about the rule of law and corruption.
The centre-right Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, a former government insider who is committed to addressing corruption, unlocking billions of euros in frozen European Union funds to stimulate the economy, and reinforcing Hungary’s ties with both the EU and NATO.
The latest poll, conducted by the Idea Institute between 31 January and 6 February, reported that 48% of decided voters supported Tisza, while 38% backed Orbán’s Fidesz.
Furthermore, the poll indicated that the percentage of undecided voters declined by 3% to 24% within the month. Two other parties—the right-extremist Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) and the centre-left Democratic Coalition (Demokratikus Koalicio)—are expected to reach the 5% electoral threshold for single-party lists to enter the 199-seat National Assembly.
The upcoming vote in April could have severe implications for European politics. Prime Minister Orbán, an ally of the Russian President Vladimir Putin and ultimately an associate of US President Donald Trump, has frequently found himself at odds with the EU on various issues. The EU has accused Orbán of undermining democratic norms in Hungary.
Despite implementing measures aimed at gaining voter support following three years of economic stagnation and the highest inflation rates in the EU, the Hungarian PM applies a vast disinformation campaign against Tisza, accusing it of being a Brussels man.
An eventual defeat of Orbán will also have a high symbolic value for Europe, as it would weaken both the far-right governments in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, as well as the European far-right family.
