How Italians vote this Sunday and Monday in a national referendum on judicial reform could be a crucial indicator of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni‘s standing at a time when the country’s divided opposition is focusing on next year’s general election, knowing full well that it needs to form a cohesive alliance if it is to defeat her rightwing coalition in 2027.
The 22-23 March referendum on the governance of the judiciary is tantamount to a showdown between the Meloni administration-backed “Yes” camp and opposition support for a ‘No’. Analysts say most people are likely to cast their ballots based on political preferences, paying little attention to the substance.
Ostensibly, the referendum is to determine whether to separate the careers of judges and public prosecutors, splitting the self-ruling High Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two bodies whose members would be chosen by lot rather than elected.
Polls have shown both camps locked neck-and-neck, with those opposed to the proposed reform said to be gaining ground amidst suggestions that many rightwing supporters might not vote out of apathy.
Meloni is insistent that defeat would not trigger her resignation, an assertion generally taken as a ploy to discourage opposition voters from turning out in large numbers to unseat her. A turnout quorum is not required to validate the referendum vote.
Italy’s ruling coalition, comprising far-right and conservative parties, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, the League and Forza Italia, remains more popular than the fractious left. Yet a win for the “No” camp would boost efforts by the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement to create a viable centre-left alliance, which would spell trouble for the Meloni ranks.
However, were the reform proposal to pass, Meloni, who is nearing the end of her term, would emerge strengthened at a time when she is dealing with fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran and a stagnant economy.
The referendum is the culmination of a controversial and divisive issue that dates back to when former conservative Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi faced dozens of trials linked primarily to his business dealings and was frequently accused of political bias by judges.
Meloni’s contention that reform is needed after a series of scandals exposing backroom deals over senior prosecutor appointments has put her at odds with Italian magistrates. ANM, their union, maintains that the proposal would weaken judicial independence and increase political interference.
Earlier this week, Meloni was resolute, telling the newspaper Il Dubbio : “The reform aims to make the justice system more modern, fair, accountable and independent, free from political pressure and from the factionalism that has damaged its credibility and authority.”
