A month before Romanian voters will vote for the second time in six months on 4 May (and 18 May – second round), official campaigning started on Friday for a presidential election that will be closely monitored, particularly in light of the annulment of the December vote. In December, the far right and pro-Kremlin candidate Călin Georgescu achieved an unexpected victory in the first round. However, the Constitutional Court subsequently annulled the election after allegations surfaced regarding Russian interference in supporting his candidacy.
Following Georgescu’s disqualification from the rescheduled election, the far-right has endorsed George Simion, the leader of the opposition Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), a pro-Kremlin, fascist, and irredentist party, now the second-largest in the country. It is noteworthy that AUR is a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament.
Recent polls indicate that George Simion is leading among the 11 candidates. After him, three other candidates are showing strong polling numbers: Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan; Crin Antonescu, representing the pro-EU coalition government; Victor Ponta, a former prime minister and supporter of Donald Trump, and Elena Lasconi, the opposition Save Romania Union (USR) party’s leader, second to Georgescu in the first round of the annulled December vote.
Despite the apparent lead for Simion, polling data presents a varied picture of public opinion’s preferences, thus complicating the assessment of voter inclinations. For example, one poll suggests that Simion may secure approximately 35% of the votes in the first round, with Ponta following at 21.1%. However, a survey published on 28 March recorded Simion at 31%, Dan at 22.7%, Antonescu at 19%, Ponta at 17.1%, and Lasconi at 6%.
While Romania’s democratic institutions have responded effectively to foreign interference by annulling last year’s presidential elections, challenges persist. The country’s democracy remains a target for hybrid attacks from Russia. In December, Romania’s top security council declassified documents revealing that the nation had been subjected to “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during the electoral period.
In February, Romanian prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation against Georgescu, alleging incitement to actions against the constitutional order, support for fascist groups, and false declarations regarding electoral campaign funding and asset disclosures. Georgescu has denied any wrongdoing.
Furthermore, to strengthen democratic resilience, Romania’s National Audiovisual Council has launched a campaign to combat illegal online content.
A recent report from TikTok indicated that, during Romania’s 2024 presidential election campaign, the AUR and independent pro-Russia candidate Călin Georgescu profited from the activities of more than 27,000 fake accounts. Despite these developments, Simion continues to show a favourable standing in the polls.
The TikTok reveals its role
TikTok has acknowledged that 27,000 fake accounts supported Călin Georgescu and the AUR political party’s electoral campaigns in Romania, as reported on 2 April. Romanian prosecutors have indicated that troll farms utilised Turkish IP and Russian email addresses to create 20,000 accounts, which collectively posted over 2 million comments in November 2024.
The report underscores that AUR and Călin Georgescu were the beneficiaries of this network, which TikTok has since removed. Presently, investigations are focused exclusively on the allegedly illegal support received by Călin Georgescu.
According to TikTok, this network was operated by a fake engagement provider targeting a Romanian audience to manipulate the electoral discourse through inauthentic accounts.
The troll accounts are reported to have generated more than 2.1 million comments starting on 23 November 2024, the day before the first round of voting. These TikTok accounts were created using an automated algorithm that relied on Russian email services and common IP addresses in major Turkish cities, indicating the presence of a troll farm that significantly promoted Călin Georgescu’s campaign.
What is at stake?
Romania, positioned at the crossroads of Eastern and Western interests, has become a target of Russian disinformation and covert interference, which have intensified and posed a threat to its democracy. Unfortunately, democratic parties only recognised the extent of this infiltration and misinformation when it was nearly too late.
The Romanian far-right may support actions undermining the country’s sovereignty, potentially bringing Romania closer to Moscow, like Hungary and Slovakia.
Moreover, the president holds a semi-executive role, granting him significant power over military aid and defence spending decisions. It allows him to obstruct Romania’s NATO involvement and veto EU votes that require unanimity. This is crucial as the bloc seeks to enhance its defence capabilities and develop a strategy for Ukraine amid ongoing US-led peace negotiations.
Romanian democracy is at risk
The recent presidential election highlighted the growing influence of the far-right vote, mobilising ultra-conservative factions for the upcoming electoral battle. George Simion, a polarising leader whose party began as an anti-vaccination group, has gained significant traction as an opposition force.
Simion’s party, AUR, threatens regional stability by advocating for restoring Romania’s pre-World War II borders, which would affect parts of Bulgaria, Moldova, and Ukraine. Recently, far-right members of parliament united against a law that would permit Romania to shoot down invading drones, a relevant concern amid ongoing Russian aggression toward Ukraine.
