Romania is poised for a pivotal moment as it prepares for a two-round presidential election on 4 and 18 May. This decision comes after the Constitutional Court dramatically invalidated the initial ballot held in December 2024 amid swirling allegations of campaign fraud and the shadow of foreign interference, identified as Russian meddling. This interference was believed to bolster the controversial candidacy of far-right and pro-Russian Călin Georgescu.
On 9 March, a decisive move by Romania’s Central Election Bureau (CEB) led to the rejection of Georgescu’s candidacy, marking a significant turn in the political landscape. Additionally, the CEB dismissed the candidacy of another far-right figure, Diana Iovanovici-Șoșoacă, who also has ties to Russia. This leaves the door open for two prominent candidates vying for the support of a growing far-right electorate: George Simion, the leader of Romania’s second-largest political party, the Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), and Viktor Ponta, a former Prime Minister who has transitioned from a socialist past to embrace an ultraconservative ideology.
In a surprising twist, recent polls indicate that both candidates may not only capture the electorate’s attention but could also make it to the second round of voting, setting the stage for a thrilling and uncertain political battle ahead.
The Georgescu case
In the vivid backdrop of the 24 November election, Călin Georgescu—a relative stranger to roughly 90% of Romania’s populace just days prior—unexpectedly captured the spotlight by securing 21% of the votes. Following close behind was Elena Lasconi, a pro-democratic candidate from the liberal Save Romania Union (USR) party. Surprisingly, the candidates from the ruling factions—the Christian-Democratic National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Social Democrats (PSD)—failed to reach the runoff, leaving voters stunned. George Simion finished fourth with a modest 13%.
The astonishing fact that Georgescu, mainly unknown to the masses, amassed an impressive 2.1 million votes raised the alarm. In response, civil society rallied passionately, demanding transparency and the declassification of crucial documents from a Supreme Council of National Defence (CSAT) meeting convened by then-President Klaus Iohannis. The released documents unveiled shocking evidence of Russian interference—both direct and indirect—highlighting illegal support funnelled to Georgescu via the popular social media platform TikTok.
In the wake of these revelations, the Constitutional Court of Romania (CCR)—entrusted with upholding the integrity of presidential elections—recognised the weighty evidence of foreign meddling that tainted the electoral process. In a historic decision, the CCR annulled the entire election, compelling the government to prepare for new elections.
Moreover, the court’s ruling invalidated Călin Georgescu’s candidacy for the upcoming 2025 election. The justices argued against allowing an individual who had previously precipitated the annulment of the 2024 elections to run, engage in illicit actions with the backing of a foreign power, and egregiously claim to have spent zero lei during his campaign. Indictments from the Anti-Mafia and General Prosecutors’ Offices alleged that he harboured intentions to undermine Romania’s constitutional order, threatening the foundations of law and governance.
What is at stake?
Romania, a nation uniquely poised at the crossroads of Eastern and Western interests, has long been a target of insidious Russian disinformation and covert interference. This shadowy campaign has redoubled in intensity, creating an unsettling undercurrent in the country’s democracy.
Tragically, the democratic parties awoke to the extent of their institutions’ infiltration and the rampant misinformation within society only when it was nearly too late.
Russia has cunningly orchestrated an electoral base fueled by disdain for the European Union—and, by extension, Ukraine—while cultivating a dangerous affinity for authoritarian regimes. The landscape for Romanian democracy has taken a darker turn, exacerbated by the interference of the new US administration, which appears to be pursuing agendas that align with those of the Kremlin: to destabilise EU and NATO member states and to show discord in this vital region of Europe, making it ripe for further Russian influence, particularly over Moldova.
As is a disturbing trend in many European nations, the Romanian far-right stands poised to support any efforts that threaten the country’s political and economic sovereignty, potentially steering Romania towards a closer alignment with Moscow, akin to Hungary and Slovakia.
The president of Romania holds a semi-executive position, allowing him to chair the influential council responsible for military aid and defence spending decisions. This power provides him with the authority to obstruct Romania’s role within NATO and to exercise veto power over EU votes that require unanimity—making this role critically crucial as the bloc grapples with the urgent need to bolster its defence capabilities and craft an effective strategy for Ukraine amid US-led negotiations for peace.
Romanian democracy is at risk
The Romanian political landscape has become increasingly perilous as the establishment has belatedly awakened to the encroaching threat of far-right extremism. In October 2024, amid the candidate validation process for the upcoming presidential election, the Constitutional Court of Romania (CCR) made a decisive move by invalidating Diana Ivanovici Șoșoacă’s candidacy. This ruling was based on her blatant violations of laws aimed at curbing antisemitism and the glorification of oppressive regimes. Once a notable figure within the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), Șoșoacă broke away from the party of Simion to spearhead a more radical faction—SOS Romania—an organisation that openly champions pro-Kremlin sentiments and vehemently opposes the European Union. Her new party swept through the previous European elections, securing her a seat in the European Parliament alongside another member. With her characteristic flair, often donning a boxing glove at rallies, Șoșoacă took centre stage in disrupting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s attempt to address the Romanian parliament in 2023. Predictably, on 15 March 2025, the CCR disqualified her again, underscoring her controversial status.
The preceding presidential election had unveiled the formidable power of the far-right vote, energising ultra-conservative and irredentist factions to rally their forces for the next electoral battle.
George Simion, a polarising figure, stands at the forefront of this movement. As a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) at the European Parliament, Simion’s background is as contentious as it is compelling. AUR began as a fringe anti-vaccination group during the COVID-19 pandemic but has since transformed into a prominent opposition force, gaining significant traction in the political arena. Simion faces an investigation for inciting violence tied to the expulsion of fellow member Georgescu.
AUR poses a substantial risk to regional stability, primarily as Simion advocates restoring Romania’s pre-World War II borders, which would encroach upon territories now considered part of Bulgaria, Moldova, and Ukraine. Consequently, his acceptance into the ECR, championed by Giorgia Meloni‘s political faction, was a compromising decision.
On 12 March, Simion allied with Anamaria Gavrila, the leader of the Young People’s Party, in a strategic move to bolster their chances in the upcoming elections. Despite their shared goals, these far-right factions exhibit different alignment methods with Kremlin interests.
Recently, all members of these parties in parliament united in opposition to a law that would empower Romania to shoot down drones invading its airspace—a pressing concern as Russian forces continue their aggressive incursions against Ukraine.
Previously an AUR member until 2021, Gavrila launched her own party in 2023. Her party achieved remarkable success in December 2024, entering parliament for the first time with 6.3% of the vote. The party’s electoral gains are largely credited to their partnership with Georgescu during the May elections and their strategic positioning as “his party,” despite Georgescu’s lack of formal political affiliation. Gavrila regarded her electoral success as a “divine sign,”
Victor Ponta, former Prime Minister of Romania, has now re-entered the political fray, declaring his candidacy to re-run the presidential election. Ponta is no stranger to the presidential race; he first entered the fray in July 2014, simultaneously launching frontal attacks against his leading rival, Klaus Iohannis. In that election’s first round, he surged ahead, capturing 40.4% of the vote, but ultimately succumbed to Iohannis in the runoff. Ponta lost by a narrow margin of 54.5% to 45.5%.
After resigning as prime minister in November 2015, Ponta engaged in controversial actions and alliances. Notably, in 2017, he received Serbian citizenship from the newly elected President Aleksandar Vučić. Expelled from the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in June 2017, he subsequently established PRO Romania—a political party he founded in September—presenting it as a centre-left alternative meant to replace Romania’s “mediocre and incapable” elites with capable professionals.
Despite winning two seats in the European Parliament elections in May 2019 and garnering 24 seats in the Romanian parliament, PRO Romania faced a downturn in the 2020 parliamentary elections, failing to secure any seats. This setback prompted Ponta to announce his retreat from politics for the foreseeable future. Although he returned briefly to the PSD, he departed three months later.
Having shifted further to the right over the past year, Ponta aims to make a triumphant comeback by aligning with Donald Trump, hoping to attract voters from across the political spectrum. While analysts speculate he may draw support from both the left and ultranationalists, polls have recently indicated he can advance to the second round of voting. If he does, democratic parties may find themselves compelled to rally behind him during that critical stage, shaping the future of Romanian politics.
Still, is the situation reversible?
In Romania’s vibrant yet tumultuous political landscape, three determined candidates are poised to stand against a resurgent far-right movement that threatens the very foundations of democracy. Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest, emerges as an independent liberal candidate, advocating for progress and unity. Alongside him is Crin Antonescu, a centrist figure supported by the ruling coalition—comprising the PSD, PNL, and UDMR. Then there’s Elena Lasconi, the leader of USR, who captured the public’s attention by finishing second to Georgiescu in the recently annulled 2024 election.
The far-right’s influence has surged to unprecedented heights, casting a shadow over Romania’s democratic institutions. Just a month ago, political analysts speculated that if Simion’s candidacy were validated, he would likely secure a spot in the pivotal second round of voting. Recent polls showcased a dynamic shift: Simion surged to the forefront, claiming the top preference among voters, while Dan held a solid second place, suggesting a significant outpouring of pro-democracy support for him in a prospective runoff.
Yet, the latest Sociopol survey, conducted mid-March, turned the political narrative on its head. Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner, amassing a striking 32% of the vote—an impressive rise of 4%. In stark contrast, Ponta followed with 23%, illuminating the widening chasm between the leading candidates and the rest. Support for Dan dipped to 17%, a decrease of 2%, while Antonescu trailed closely behind at 15%—down 3%—and Lasconi found herself at 12%, striving to rally support as the election loomed.
The stakes are high, and the battle for Romania’s democratic future is intensifying.
Late Sunday evening, Ponta wrote on his account on X: “I was Prime Minister of Romania in a difficult period. I know what responsibility and care for Romanians mean. George Simion has neither the experience nor the political maturity necessary to be president. Now, only we can put #RomaniaPePrimulLoc.”
