On 17 September, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that intelligence estimates indicate Russia plans hybrid attacks with drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland. He noted that while this possibility has been anticipated, the current information for Poland and its allies is “very coordinated and, unfortunately, convincing.”
Tusk explained that there is a “real risk” of drones or missiles entering NATO territory on the eastern flank, which Russia might portray as random incidents to distract NATO from responding. This strategy could aim to undermine NATO’s unity and create doubt about the effectiveness of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
He highlighted that late autumn and winter could be critical periods for the war in Ukraine and reaffirmed the Polish government’s preparations for potential increased Russian activity. Tusk emphasised that while this scenario is considered the most likely, it is not the only possible outcome.
Tusk clarified that he was not referring to a direct Russian invasion of Poland, stating, “Today, there is no threat of invasion.” However, he warned that Poland should prepare for “more dangerous provocations and incidents.” He emphasised the need for NATO unity, as Poland expects a swift alliance response if Russia escalates.
Polish Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk echoed these concerns, noting that intelligence services have been warning of potential threats to Poland for months. These threats could include sabotage and missile or drone attacks, targeting key figures within the defence sector and government.
Tomczyk described the increase in Russian activity against nations supporting Ukraine as a coordinated effort to weaken Ukraine and sow divisions within NATO and the EU. He highlighted that the distinction between hybrid and conventional warfare is becoming blurred, stating, “To say Poland is simply at peace is no longer accurate.”
He mentioned that Polish cyber units face daily attacks and that over 5,000 soldiers are stationed along the border with Belarus. “Polish soldiers are effectively already engaged in combat,” he said, warning of difficult months ahead and emphasising the seriousness of potential security threats.
