Poland’s main opposition party is currently experiencing internal conflict regarding its future direction. On 24 July, the party leader announced that more than 30 lawmakers had effectively left the party. The conservative nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) held governance in Poland from 2015 to 2023, until the establishment of the current liberal government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
During PiS’s tenure, the party instituted measures to strengthen its control over the judiciary, appointing judges loyal to its agenda and imposing disciplinary actions against critics. Furthermore, it promoted an ultraconservative ideology regarding the EU, migration, and education and particular social groups, mainly the LGBTI community.
Efforts by the Tusk government to reverse these judicial changes have repeatedly encountered obstacles from two successive presidents supported by Law and Justice, Andrzej Duda and Karol Nawrocki. With a national election on the horizon next year, tensions within PiS escalated, particularly as the party faces challenges from political parties further to the right.
At the heart of this conflict are longtime leader Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who served from 2017 to 2023. Morawiecki represents a more moderate faction. He established an association known as Development Plus in April, which has drawn suspicion from other party members. Kaczyński has also expressed disapproval of such initiatives.
In response, the party set a deadline for lawmakers to commit not to join other political associations, which expired on Thursday night. A meeting between Kaczyński and Morawiecki on Thursday failed to resolve their differences.
On Friday, Kaczyński indicated that, as a result of this internal strife, more than 30 lawmakers had resigned from the party, according to the Polish news agency PAP. He stated that the party’s political committee would convene on Tuesday to address this situation.
However, Piotr Müller, a European Parliament lawmaker and ally of Morawiecki, contradicted the party leadership’s assertions, noting on X that no members affiliated with Development Plus had actually resigned from Law and Justice. Morawiecki has also stated that he and other members of his association have not yet deliberated on forming a new political party, stressing the need to discuss all plans.
In the wake of the 2023 general elections, in which Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) emerged victorious over PiS, PiS’s leadership has adopted a more rigid stance and increasingly aligned with far-right positions. This shift facilitated the election of populist nationalist President Karol Nawrocki, who garnered support from far-right constituents. PiS has been engaging with the country’s far-right political forces in anticipation of a post-election government coalition.
While Morawiecki has not publicly acknowledged the split or the potential formation of a new political party, such developments could catalyse the emergence of a significant right-wing political force and further shift PiS towards the far right, potentially diminishing its influence in Poland’s political landscape. Morawiecki retains the support of approximately 40 lawmakers, whereas the ultraconservative faction possesses a substantially larger contingent.
The existing conflict between these factions has weakened the opposition to Tusk’s government. Currently, Law and Justice holds 186 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, the lower house of parliament. The impending split is likely to weaken the party considerably and significantly impact the conservative and far-right political dynamics in Poland.
A recent CBOS poll, conducted in June, indicated that if elections were held in the first half of that month, the Civic Coalition would be projected to receive 28.5% of the vote, while PiS would attain 22.1%. Furthermore, two additional parties, identifiable as anti-EU, far-right, and pro-Kremlin, may gain representation in the forthcoming four-member Sejm. These parties include the Confederation, with 12.8% support, and the antisemitic Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), with 9.4% support. The poll also revealed that if parliamentary elections had occurred in early June, 76.6% of respondents indicated they would have participated.
This article used information from The Associated Press.
