Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic are scheduled for 3 and 4 October 2025. What is at stake in these elections is the European path of the country and its alignment with Russia and China. In this context, the parties of the government coalition will seek to obtain as many votes as possible in order to make it difficult for the populist and far-right ANO party, led by Czech billionaire Andrej Babiš, to form a government.
As the ANO party’s influence rises and 101 seats are needed for a majority in the 200-member Chamber, the country is at risk of several national and international adventures.
Moreover, the Petr Fiala government will face a no-confidence vote on Thursday, called by ANO today. The far-right party accused it of corruption over the acceptance of a payment to the state by an ex-convict worth $45 million in Bitcoin. However, the vote is likely to fail, as the government has a majority in parliament, but it could harm the ruling coalition ahead of the elections.
“These elections are not just about the next four years of government but about democracy, security, prosperity, and the values on which our society stands. The Czech Republic needs to continue prudent state management in the coming years, supporting education, building highways, roads, and railways, developing energy sources, and investing in modern sectors such as chip manufacturing, nuclear power, and artificial intelligence. And it also needs clear values, principles, and a pro-Western orientation to ensure peace, prosperity, and security for its citizens,” the pro-EU Prime Minister wrote on his X account on 13 May.
Recent opinion polls show that the ANO party is leading with over 30% support, while coalition parties have around 27-28%.
Following the October 2021 elections, Petr Fiala, as the leader of the Spolu (Together) alliance, formed a government that includes the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), Mayors and Independents (STAN), Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People’s Party (KDU-ČSL), and TOP 09, along with the Pirate Party, which brought Jan Lipavský in as foreign minister. The coalition was a broader alliance comprising the ECR, EPP parties, and the Greens.
Despite significant accomplishments in restoring the Czech Republic’s position within the European community and addressing corruption inherited from the previous ANO government, Fiala’s cabinet has faced the lowest popularity ratings, according to public opinion polls.
The Czech Republic has improved its energy security by reducing reliance on Russian oil. Previously, roughly half of the country’s oil was sourced through the Druzhba pipeline. In January, the government announced its independence from Russian oil imports and halted Russian gas imports earlier this year, confirming it can now meet its oil needs through Western sources.
In September 2024, following poor results in regional and Senate elections, the Pirate Party left the coalition. Jan Lipavský continued as foreign minister as an independent, having resigned from the Pirate Party.
Conflict of interest
The ANO (Yes) party was established in 2011 as a liberal political entity and joined the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in 2014. However, the party has faced significant challenges due to conflicts of interest, particularly concerning allegations of EU subsidy fraud. In December 2017, the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) submitted a report to the Czech Republic regarding the “Capi hnizdo” case, naming Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and his deputy head, Jaroslav Faltynek, among those facing charges.
In December 2018, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) urged the European Commission to adopt a zero-tolerance policy towards such issues, highlighting Prime Minister Babiš’s involvement in a conflict of interest since 2014. Between 2013 and 2017, companies linked to his business group received between EUR 42 million and EUR 82 million from the European Structural and Investment Funds, prompting a formal investigation by the European Commission.
By June 2020, the European Parliament expressed concern over Babiš’s continued involvement in EU budget management while allegedly controlling “Agrofert,” a major recipient of EU subsidies.
Struggles within the ALDE group became evident as differences emerged on issues such as the Green Deal and migration. Initially a populist party, ANO has adopted an anti-liberal stance and maintained ties with far-right organisations. In June 2024, Babiš announced that ANO would exit the Renew Group in the European Parliament to form a new alliance, the Patriots for Europe (PfE), led by Marine Le Pen.
The Czech far-right
After aligning with the European far-right, ANO has joined two other political parties in the Czech Republic that are linked to distinct far-right alliances. ANO is a key member of PfE, which expects the possibility of a far-right government after the upcoming October general elections.
The Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD), led by Tomio Okamura—a former ally of Marine Le Pen—was excluded from PfE and has joined the more extreme Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) group, led by the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The SPD opposes refugees and immigrants and advocates for the Czech Republic’s exit from the European Union. Polls indicate the SPD holds 13.7%.
Additionally, the Motorists for Themselves (AUTO) party is part of PfE, though it is unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation. All three parties support Russia’s stance in the conflict with Ukraine and collaborate with Hungary and Slovakia to challenge EU policies regarding Russia, which could pose significant challenges for the Union if a government led by Babiš were to take office.
In January, Babiš began flirting with the SPD regarding their support for an ANO government, indicating that despite a lack of communication, the possibility of collaboration exists. He referred to Radim Fiala, head of the SPD parliamentary group, as a reasonable member of parliament.
As ANO and SPD are close to an alliance, Prime Minister Petr Fiala reacted with a post on X.
“Cooperation between ANO and SPD? No surprise. It’s just further proof of how close they are. Babiš and Okamura are doing politics according to the same script – instilling fear, promising the impossible, and ignoring responsibility. One an oligarch, the other a demagogue, both without scruples or responsibility. While we deal with the budget, security and defence, they lie, promise miracles and feed hatred. But today, it is not just about populism. At a time when Europe is facing Russian aggression and a disinformation war, ANO is toying with the idea of cooperating with extremists who question our belonging to the West and bow to the Kremlin. This is a fundamental risk for the Czech Republic. We reject this path. We stand firmly on the side of democracy, the rule of law, and a clear anchoring in the Euro-Atlantic space”.
Fiala highlights the Czech Republic faces fundamental challenges that will shape its future for decades to come.
“The world around us is changing – we are dealing with the consequences of Russia’s aggressive policies, the rise of populism and extremism, and uncertainty in the global economy,” Petr Fiala said in May.
On 13 May, the Prime Minister, together with politicians from the Spolu coalition, launched an information campaign across the Czech Republic, visiting over 200 diverse locations, aimed at informing citizens about the government’s work and the risks associated with an ANO government.
