The European Union expressed renewed optimism on Wednesday about Serbia’s membership talks, contingent on the election-winning student movement forming a government committed to strengthening democracy. The EU indicated that several countries are likely to join in the coming years, according to its annual enlargement report. The European Commission stated that Montenegro is on track to become the EU’s 28th member by 2028, while Albania and Moldova could join the following year. However, Ukraine is not expected to fulfil the requirements for membership before the end of the decade.
“The significant progress achieved by some candidates over the last year allows us to turn the promise of enlargement into reality,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. “Step by step, we are building a more complete, stronger Union.”
A chance to revive talks with Serbia
Under national-populist President Aleksandar Vučić, who was recently defeated in general elections, Serbia made progress in its negotiations to join the world’s largest trading bloc by opening new policy chapters. However, during this time, the country’s democratic standards deteriorated.
In April, the European Commission warned that Serbia could lose access to approximately €1.5 billion in funds if it did not stop this backsliding. The state funeral held in Belgrade in September for Ratko Mladić, the Bosnian Serb commander who had died while serving a life sentence for war crimes, also angered EU leaders, who had cautioned against any public tribute to him. Yet the recent election of a diverse, student-led opposition movement—which spent two years protesting Vučić’s government—might offer an opportunity to reset relations with this influential country in the Western Balkans as it seeks closer ties with Europe.
“Now Serbia has the chance for a fresh start,” Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told EU lawmakers as she debriefed them on the report.
“The new Serbian government has an opportunity to turn the page, strengthen democratic institutions and fundamental rights, and take the necessary steps to advance on Serbia’s accession path,” she Kos added.
Serbia has the opportunity for significant advancement under a government that demonstrates strong political will; however, membership in the European Union appears to be several years away. Forming a government in Belgrade may take several months. While the current movement prioritises the fight against corruption—a focus that aligns with EU values—this emphasis may not reflect an immediate commitment to pursuing EU membership, particularly given the movement’s limited political experience.
A new roadmap for EU membership
The Commission has introduced a “roadmap” for countries seeking EU membership. Croatia was the last to join, 13 years ago, and expansion has since stalled due to concerns about the bloc’s size. Nonetheless, the prospect of membership has driven reforms, especially in the Western Balkans, which still face ethnic tensions after conflicts in the 1990s.
The European Commission now believes the EU is ready to welcome new members, with Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine being the most likely candidates. Moldova could finalise its negotiations by early 2028, allowing for EU accession the following year. Ukraine is urged to accelerate its reforms to meet its goal of concluding negotiations by the end of 2028, indicating it may not join until after 2030.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia have no immediate prospects for membership due to internal issues. Kosovo seeks to join but lacks candidate status, while EU talks with Georgia and Turkey are stalled over democratic concerns in both countries.
This article used information from The Associated Press.
