The upcoming election in eastern Germany, in Saxony-Anhalt, on 6 September could result in the country’s first far-right state governor since World War II. As Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his national government face challenges in addressing what he calls “widespread dissatisfaction,” recent polls indicate a significant lead for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a right-wing extremist party, ahead of the state legislature election in Saxony-Anhalt. Securing control of a state government would mark a historic achievement for the AfD, representing a considerable political shift in Germany and posing a symbolic challenge to Chancellor Merz’s administration.
“If the AfD wins the election and forms the government, it would break a major taboo in Germany,” said Wolfgang Merkel, a political science professor at the WBZ Berlin Social Science Centre. He pointed out that modern Germany has not had a radical right-wing party in power at the national, state, or major city level.
The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Merz, has governed Saxony-Anhalt, home to 2.1 million people, since 2002. However, the CDU faces challenges; in last year’s national election, the AfD won 20.8% of the vote, becoming Germany’s largest opposition party, particularly strong in the former East German states. As Merz’s government struggles with a sluggish economy, the AfD has capitalised on voter discontent, addressing issues beyond its focus on limiting migration.
A dramatic shift
In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is pursuing an absolute majority in the state legislature to break the “firewall” that mainstream parties have against cooperating with them, as their regional branch is classified as a right-wing extremist group, which the AfD denies. The AfD’s campaign slogan is “Everything is possible.”
Ulrich Siegmund, the party’s candidate for governor, sees this as a historic opportunity. He emphasises priorities such as the deportation of illegal residents, reducing incentives for immigration, and withdrawing Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster due to concerns about “disinformation.”
Winning in Saxony-Anhalt would strengthen AfD’s ambitions for further gains and potentially for national governance. The party advocates for allowing home schooling, banning schools from displaying the rainbow flag, and opposing taxpayer support for Ukraine while seeking to lift sanctions against Russia.
Siegmund’s primary opponent, incumbent governor Sven Schulze of the CDU, recently expressed concerns about the potential impact of the AfD on Saxony-Anhalt. In a discussion held at his party’s offices in Magdeburg, he said that the AfD aims to revert to past policies and warned that the region could face significant isolation under their governance.
Schulze underscored the considerable progress made in strengthening Saxony-Anhalt’s economy and reducing unemployment since Germany’s reunification in 1990.
He further articulated that the far-right party’s stance effectively excludes individuals born abroad who currently reside and contribute to the community. Given the substantial number of immigrants employed in essential sectors such as healthcare and other industries, Schulze highlighted that this exclusion would pose significant challenges for Saxony-Anhalt.
Schulze remarked, “The AfD tends to identify problems, but it does not offer viable solutions.” He affirmed his commitment to distancing himself from the AfD, stating that the CDU is fully united in this stance.
However, the future governing possibilities for the AfD remain uncertain, even if it emerges as the strongest party in the election. Merkel indicated that without securing an absolute majority, the AfD may struggle to establish a governing coalition due to a lack of compatible partners. This situation would likely compel Schulze to seek alliances with smaller parties to his left, potentially leading to perceptions of a tenuous hold on power, as noted by Merkel.
More state elections are coming
The impact of an AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt on the national government remains uncertain, especially if Merz’s CDU and its coalition partners, the Social Democrats, perform poorly in the upcoming elections on 20 September in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Merkel believes Saxony-Anhalt is too small to have a significant effect, but a major loss of votes could highlight the decline of traditional parties. Merz’s government must demonstrate its ability to implement reforms, especially as it currently lacks visible successes.
In a bid to inspire optimism, Merz recently urged his Cabinet to overcome the prevailing gloom and despondency paralysing the country.
This article used information from The Associated Press.
