The right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in the polls ahead of the 6 September state election in Saxony-Anhalt. This trend suggests the potential for an unprecedented political shift. Forecasts for the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt election indicate that the AfD could achieve an absolute majority.
In the latest polls, the AfD maintains a considerable lead. However, it remains a fundamental question: not whether the AfD will secure a victory, but whether it can govern alone. The party has been classified as “confirmed right-wing extremist” by the Saxony-Anhalt Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
Should the AfD govern in this capacity, the implications would extend beyond the state’s borders. The lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, would participate in the Conference of Minister-Presidents, influencing decisions that affect the entire country. Regular consultations at the Chancellery would also be required.
Earlier this year, Holger Münch, the president of the Federal Criminal Police Office of Germany (BKA), underscored the security risks associated with this scenario. He told the Tagesspiegel that an AfD minister-president would have access to “protected and sensitive data and information.” Given the current polling landscape, this warning is increasingly relevant and urgent.
The AfD has faced total isolation from other political parties, creating a so-called “firewall” that has prevented any potential cooperation. In both the Bundestag and state parliaments, there has been no willingness to engage with this extremist party.
Thus, the AfD maintained its position as a staunch opposition, distancing itself from the parties currently in power. However, this situation may be shifting in Saxony-Anhalt—not through collaboration, but through electoral strength. Current polls indicate that the AfD has garnered over 41% support in the lead-up to the Saxony-Anhalt election, bringing it close to achieving an absolute majority.
The latest poll conducted by INSA between 26 August and 1 September found the AfD with 43% support, while the CDU had 22%, The Left 12%, SPD 7% and the Greens 5%. Therefore, the prospect of an AfD-only government in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be dismissed, raising significant concerns.
The indications are that the AfD is poised to achieve its best performance yet in Saxony-Anhalt since its founding in 2013. The party previously attained results of 24.3% in the 2016 elections and 20.8% in the 2021 elections.
