While Saxony-Anhalt will hold elections for a new state parliament consisting of 83 seats on 6 September, security authorities are bracing for a tense weekend. The Interior Ministry in Magdeburg, Tamara Zieschang from the conservative CDU, has been preparing for months, with over 1,000 demonstrations and numerous criminal offences already registered.
Minister Zieschang expressed uncertainty, saying, “Nobody knows what will actually happen at 6:01 p.m. [when the polls will close], but we will protect peaceful demonstrations and the right to vote.” A large police presence will be deployed to prevent clashes between right- and left-wing extremists, with all available personnel on duty, according to tagesschau.de. The Interior Ministry has requested additional support, including riot police and water cannons from other federal states.
The police are preparing for four potential scenarios, as 26 events are scheduled and around 10,000 participants nationwide expected, including demonstrations, party events, and cultural activities. The police have been preparing since November, focusing on protecting election events and monitoring social media for disinformation.
Security authorities have outlined four possible scenarios for election night, as reported by bild.de:
First: If the AfD enters the government, large-scale protests from civic and left-wing groups are expected, especially in Magdeburg. Tens of thousands, including members of the antifascist “Widersetzen” (Resistance) alliance, are likely to demonstrate, while AfD supporters may also hold spontaneous celebrations, potentially leading to clashes.
Second: If the AfD performs worse than polls suggest, or if the SPD narrowly enters the state parliament despite initial projections to the contrary, rumours of election fraud may arise. Then, the AfD will advance “stolen election” claims.
Minister Zieschang warns against this narrative, emphasising the election’s integrity and the presence of observers. Authorities fear mobilisation from far-right circles in response to disappointing results.
Third: If the election results are close, the outcome will remain uncertain, leading to less emotionally charged demonstrations as all parties wait for developments. “Tactical” voting could also influence the results.
Fourth: Authorities anticipate spontaneous attacks by groups at various locations and are concerned about potential disruptions at polling stations and unexpected protests.
A tense situation
The situation is tense ahead of election day, with the Interior Ministry reporting 1,075 assemblies and events linked to the election, and at least 500 more expected. There have been at least 66 reported criminal offences related to the campaign, including political insults and physical assaults against campaigners.
Minister Zieschang emphasised the need for peaceful political debate. “We will take decisive action against any kind of violence or crime,” she stated.
The latest poll conducted by INSA between 26 August and 1 September found the right-wing extremist AfD with 43% support, while the CDU had 22%, The Left 12%, SPD 7% and the Greens 5%. Therefore, the prospect of an AfD-only government in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be dismissed, raising significant concerns.
